China’s Foreign Reserves at $1 Trillion
China Foreign Reserves to Hit $1 Trillion Soon
According to an article in the Wall Street Journal today, “Beijing’s reserves totaled $987.9 billion as of Sept. 30 and are growing by roughly $20 billion a month.” Hence, China’s foreign reserves will reach the equivalent of $1 Trillion US Dollars any day now.
The article goes on to talk mainly about how such reserves provide a cushion for China and how they are choosing to manage their growing pile of securities. No one knows exactly what form China holds these reserves in, but according to the article:
China discloses almost nothing about its reserves, beyond their awesome size. Roughly 70% of the Chinese reserves are believed to be in U.S. dollar assets, 20% in euros and 10% in other currencies, including the Japanese yen and Korean won, according to Brad Setser, an economist at Roubini Global Economics.
The article also says that China is gradually moving into other foreign currencies and more into US mortgage backed securities. The latter is the last place you should have your money in today, so good luck to China on this account.
China Selling US Treasuries = Nasty Short Term Outlook
The ever-looming question is what would happen if China (and Japan) decided that US Treasuries, considered the world’s safest investment in the article, were no longer worth holding en masse. Or even mortgage backed securities. What happens if demand suddenly dries up for such securities, and supply rockets as China sells them on the open market?
Given the current state of the US economy (especially in terms of the foreign account deficit and the hugely inflated housing market) , it is pretty safe to say this would have a devastating effect on the US consumer, and an equally strong effect on Chinese manufacturing. Of course, the difference would be China would have savings to fall back on (although they might be of the rapidly depreciating type), while the US and the American consumer would be caught up in a large mess of debt. Of course, both the US and China would come out of such a financial mess fine, but the short term could get nasty.
